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In-Depth Analysis of the Thai Real Estate Market in 2025: Lessons from Crisis and Golden Investment Opportunities in a Volatile Era
As someone with over a decade of experience in the Thai real estate industry, I can confirm that the market landscape is undergoing a significant transition, following several years of turbulent times, from the pandemic and economic slowdown to political uncertainty. These factors have continuously impacted the real estate sector, particularly in 2023, a truly challenging year. While many expected a slow recovery, positive signs began to appear towards the end of 2024, volatility remains a key challenge for developers and investors.
The real estate market in 2025 is no longer a game for established players clinging to old strategies. It’s a battleground for those who can adapt, see opportunities in crises, and understand the rapidly changing consumer demands. Drawing on my accumulated experience, I will guide you through an in-depth analysis of the Thai real estate market in 2025, analyze the strategies of key players, decipher their performance, and highlight promising investment opportunities in this era of transformation.
Macroeconomic Trends and Drivers of the Real Estate Market in 2025
Before we delve into the performance of leading real estate companies, it’s crucial to understand the macroeconomic factors impacting the 2025 real estate market. The recovery of the Thai economy remains a key variable. While tourism is rebounding, domestic purchasing power remains fragile due to high household debt and persistent inflation. Central banks worldwide, including the Bank of Thailand, are likely to maintain interest rates at appropriate levels to control inflation and ensure stability. This may keep home loans challenging for buyers, especially those with middle to low incomes.
However, there are positive factors to consider. These include large-scale government infrastructure investments, such as the ongoing mass transit and high-speed rail projects, which will drive real estate development along these routes and in secondary cities. Meanwhile, the hybrid work trend and the demand for green spaces remain important factors for developers to consider in new project designs. Furthermore, the government’s focus on foreign investment could attract foreign investors back into Thailand’s condominium investment market.
Decoding 2024 Performance: Lessons for 2025
(Analysis of company performance trends…) Analyzing the real estate development sector listed on the stock exchange throughout 2023 and forecasting the situation for 2024, we find that the overall industry picture remains one requiring caution. While group revenues were expected to remain stable or only slightly decline in 2023, a closer look reveals a clear distinction between those who have adapted well and those who continue to face challenges.
We anticipate that in 2024, many real estate companies will continue to face revenue pressure due to the slow recovery of purchasing power and increased competition, leading to price reductions or promotional offers to stimulate sales. While the industry’s total revenue in 2024 may not show significant growth, it signals a consolidation phase towards sustainable growth in 2025.
Some small and medium-sized companies continue to experience negative real estate performance, reflecting vulnerability and limitations in accessing funding and managing increased costs. Meanwhile, many large developers who experienced declining sales and revenue in 2023 have learned from their experiences and adjusted their real estate strategies to strengthen their businesses in 2024 and prepare for 2025.
2024 Total Revenue Champion: Who are the real market leaders?
Considering the trends and potential of leading real estate companies, we predict that in 2024, major players with diversified product portfolios and strong financial bases will continue to maintain their leading positions in total revenue. Companies like Sansiri, which demonstrated outstanding sales and revenue recognition in 2023, with sales growth defying market trends through the launch of projects catering to specific needs and effective marketing, are expected to remain a leading revenue generator in 2024 and play a significant role in driving the country’s real estate trends in 2025.
Key competitor AP (Thailand), which has proven its strength in the townhome and single-family home markets, will continue to maintain its positive momentum through the launch of new projects targeting real demand. This is expected to result in total revenue at a level similar to Sansiri, highlighting the fierce competition and the market penetration capabilities of both organizations.
Meanwhile, Supalai remains a company to watch, with its strategy of expanding projects into provincial areas and focusing on affordable products, along with excellent cost control, ensuring the company’s continued strong and reliable total revenue. “The Real Estate Market” in 2025
As for Land & Houses, despite fluctuating total revenue in 2023, its diversified investment portfolio and consistent cash flow from investment properties are expected to maintain its leading position in total revenue. However, managing revenue from core projects will be a key factor in growth in 2025.
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