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The Thai Real Estate Landscape in 2025: Lessons from Volatility for Sustainable Growth Strategies
As an expert in the Thai real estate industry for over a decade, I have observed the dynamics of this market with a deep understanding of its cyclical nature and complexities. Looking ahead to 2025, the overall picture is not merely the progression of the calendar year, but a reflection of the outcomes of battling economic storms over the past several years, particularly the painful lessons of 2023 and the period of consolidation that is about to end in 2024. The Thai real estate market today cannot ignore the warning signals that have sounded, but must instead seek new opportunities in a rapidly changing context.
2023 was another year where the real estate market did not meet expectations. The vibrancy seen in late 2022, resulting from post-crisis recovery, seemed to be stifled by a barrage of political and macroeconomic factors. This led to a continuous slowdown, even failing to generate strong momentum during the peak season of the fourth quarter. Entering 2024, the situation remained uncertain, with both supporting and hindering forces influencing the decisions of both developers and consumers. An in-depth analysis of data from 41 publicly listed real estate developers is key to understanding who the real “survivors” and “winners” are, and what strategies remain effective in the 2025 market.
From the Storm of 2023 to the New Landscape of 2025: The Adaptation of the Thai Real Estate Market
The overall real estate market in 2023 showed clear fragility. The combined revenue of the 41 aforementioned real estate companies totaled 371,560 million baht, a slight decrease of approximately 1.2% from 2022. However, this seemingly small decrease hides significant challenges. A closer look at individual companies reveals that 25 out of 41 companies experienced a decline in total revenue, reflecting the concentration of revenue among a few large players and the difficulties faced by medium and small-sized companies in maintaining market share.
Companies facing negative total revenue of 20% or more include LPN Development, Eastern Star Real Estate, and Country Group Development. These companies all experienced declines of around 28%, including Raimon Land, which saw a 26% decrease. Furthermore, Lalin Property, Major Development, and Siamese Asset saw total revenue decreases of 23%, 22%, and 21%, respectively. Even Land & Houses, one of the market leaders, experienced an 18% decrease in total revenue. These figures indicate that no one is immune to the impact of the economic slowdown and declining purchasing power.
Looking back at the top 10 companies by total revenue in 2023, five companies saw a revenue decrease compared to 2022. Besides Land & Houses, AP (Thailand) experienced a slight decrease of less than 1%, while Supalai decreased by 10%, Pruksa Holdings by 9%, and Origin Property by 4%. These figures serve as a crucial warning sign for 2025: relying solely on traditional revenue streams may no longer be sufficient. Real estate developers need to consider more diversified business models, including generating recurring income from commercial or service real estate, to mitigate risk and ensure sustainability.
Sales Revenue: The True Driving Force Indicator in 2023 and its Impact in 2025
While total revenue reflects a broad picture, “sales revenue” is the true indicator of operational performance and market response for residential projects, the core of Thailand’s real estate business. Based on 2023 data, the 41 companies collectively generated sales revenue of 268,460 million baht, a significant decrease of 11% compared to 2022’s approximately 299,979 million baht. Even more alarming is that 30 out of 41 companies experienced declining sales. This clearly signals that the challenge is not limited to total revenue but extends to the ability to clear inventory.
Companies experiencing severe sales declines include Raimon Land, with a 78% decrease in sales revenue, and LPN Development, with an almost 40% drop. Even Land & Houses, known for its market strength, was affected. Sales still declined by 38%, reflecting that a strong brand alone may not be enough in this volatile market. AP (Thailand), the number one in sales, also saw a slight decrease of 2%. Of particular concern is that among the top 10 companies with the highest sales revenue, eight experienced a decline, highlighting fierce competition and difficulties in closing sales at all levels.
For 2025, real estate developers need to adapt their sales strategies to be more flexible and target their audience more precisely. Utilizing digital technology in marketing, offering financial solutions tailored to diverse consumer purchasing power, and designing products with clear value propositions will be key. Exploring new markets, such as the recovering foreign buyer market, especially from China and neighboring countries, as well as real estate investors seeking rental returns, is another promising approach.
Decoding the Real Winners: Leading Players and Their Strategies for Overcoming the Crisis (From 2023 to 2025)
Despite the challenging overall picture, some players have demonstrated the ability to adapt and deliver outstanding results.
In terms of top total revenue in 2023:
Rank 1: Sansiri, raking in 39,082 million baht, growing 12%, demonstrating its ability to accelerate property transfers and flexible business plan.
Rank 2: AP (Thai)
