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The Thai Real Estate Market in 2025: Decoding the Strategies of Survivors and Leaders in a Transformative Era
As someone deeply involved in the Thai real estate industry for over a decade, I have continuously observed the dynamic and challenging changes in the market. Looking back, 2023 and 2024 were periods of significant volatility and a tough test for many developers, particularly due to the continued slowdown since late 2022. Expectations of recovery fell short of expectations, compounded by a barrage of negative domestic and international factors, leading to declining revenues and reduced profits for many companies.
However, for 2025, I believe it’s not just about recovery from the past slump, but a crucial “transformation.” Players in the Thai real estate market must adapt, innovate, and develop superior corporate strategies to gain a competitive edge in this increasingly fierce market. Therefore, an in-depth analysis of the performance of 41 publicly listed real estate companies is not just about summarizing past figures, but about decoding and understanding who can truly adapt and achieve success. What are the key lessons we can use to forecast the direction and trends of the Thai real estate market in 2025 for smart real estate investment in 2025?
Macroeconomic Landscape and Factors Driving the Real Estate Market in 2025
Before diving into the numbers, let me take you to explore the macroeconomic factors that will determine the fate of the real estate sector in 2025:
Global and Thai Economic Recovery: Although the global economy remains uncertain, signs of recovery in key trading partners, as well as the resurgence of Thailand’s tourism sector, will be a significant boost to purchasing power and the foreign market for Thai real estate. The expected improvement in Thailand’s GDP growth will have a positive impact on consumer and investor confidence.
Interest Rates and Household Debt: Although interest rates may remain stable or slightly decrease in the second half of the year, high levels of household debt will continue to be a significant constraint on the ability to borrow for housing, especially for middle- to lower-income buyers. Financial institutions will remain strict in considering loan applications. This is a challenge that developers must understand and offer products that meet their needs.
Government Stimulus Measures: The government is well aware of the importance of the real estate sector and is likely to introduce additional stimulus measures, such as reductions in transfer and mortgage registration fees. Relaxing Loan-to-Value (LTV) measures, particularly for housing projects for low-to-middle income earners, will help support and stimulate the market in certain segments.
Sustainability (ESG) and PropTech trends: Modern consumers place greater importance on clean energy real estate and projects that consider environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. Adopting PropTech in management, marketing, and customer experience will no longer be just an option, but a necessity to enhance competitiveness.
Changing consumer behavior: Hybrid work arrangements mean continued demand for suburban housing and projects with large common areas. Wellness real estate and projects catering to the elderly will be investment properties to watch.
Decoding Performance: Lessons from the Past for 2025 Strategies
Data collected from 41 real estate companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand reveals an interesting overview, especially the continued slowdown of the overall market. The combined revenue of these 41 companies in 2023 was approximately 371,560 million baht, a slight decrease of about -1.2% from 2022. However, a closer look at individual companies reveals that 25 companies experienced a significant decrease in total revenue. These figures serve as warning signs and important lessons for 2025.
Companies facing significant pressure:
L.P.N. Development, Eastern Star Real Estate, Country Group Development: These groups experienced revenue declines of 20-28%, highlighting the challenges in clearing inventory and launching new projects in a weak market.
Raimon Land, Lalin Property, Major Development, Siamese Asset: These companies also faced problems, with revenue declines of 21-26%, reflecting their failure to adapt to changes in purchasing power and consumer behavior.
Even market leaders like Land and Houses faced a total revenue decline of 18%. Among the top 10 companies with the highest revenue in 2023, five experienced a decline: AP (Thailand) with a slight decrease of less than 1%, Supalai -10%, Pruksa Holding -9%, and Origin Property -4%, demonstrating that no one is immune to the impact of the market slowdown.
Examining Sales Revenue: Measuring the Core Performance of Developers
Considering only “sales revenue,” the true key performance indicator, a different and clearer picture emerges. Aggregate data from 41 companies shows total sales revenue of 268,460 million baht, a decrease of -11% from 2022. Thirty companies experienced a shocking decline in sales.
Those facing the most severe crisis:
Raimon Land: Sales decreased massively by -78%, reflecting the urgent need for strategic adjustments.
L.P.N. Development: Sales decreased by almost -40%.
Land and Houses: Despite being a profit leader, sales decreased by -38%, a signal to watch in the coming years.
Even the number one seller, AP (Thailand), experienced a slight decrease of -2%, and among the top 10 companies with the highest sales, 8 companies reported negative sales growth.
Those who persevered and grew:
AP (Thailand): Remains the number one seller with 36,927 million baht, demonstrating strong marketing and management.
